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Il_Padrino
Posts: 7984
Location: Greece by the North Sea
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 Posted: Mon, 1st Jun 2026 12:46 Post subject: |
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From what I've heard, for the mega El Nino to come, the seawater would have to rise 3, 3.5°C this year, which it already surpassed.
For the banking systems, they are already past the red line from 2008 as well, despite all the safety mechanisms. There have been new systems introduced with which banks can circumvent the safety nets.
There is a massive amount of money invested in private equity that's not listed, for example, and PE is in rough waters lately too. Lots of investors want to get out, and looking towards the stock market (hence why we're seeing lots of IPOs for the end of the year).
Hormuz is the genie out of the bottle. Iran always had the option to take control over it and disrupt global economy, but they never dared (probably because they thought it would be much harder to do, and there'd be more repercussions). But now that's a fact, they will try to keep it closed as long as they can. They're not dumb, they see what's happening.
Even if Hormuz reopens, the current estimations are that things will normalize around 2032 (6 years from now!).
And for AI, it's not so much the billionaires losing their investments (for this reason alone I'd love to see it all crash and burn  ). But it's the over representation of these companies in the S&P500. Pension funds automatically buy these stocks, and the bigger the weight of a company, the more these funds will buy.
Meaning once the bubble bursts, many pension funds will be fucked (and this is global, as pretty much all funds everywhere are heavily invested in the S&P500, since it's been free money for the last 15 years or so).
And then there's the SpaceX IPO, for which the rules have specifically been changed, so 401(K)s will immediately start buying into it, instead of the usual 1 year buffer. If you've been following this, it's basically a cash burning machine because they've integrated xAI into it.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-land-401-k-no-163000833.html
The numbers don't decide, the system is a lie. The river running dry, the wings of butterflies.
And you may pour us away like soup. Like we're pretty broken flowers.
We'll take back what is ours. One day at a time.
Last edited by Il_Padrino on Mon, 1st Jun 2026 17:07; edited 1 time in total
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| Posted: Mon, 1st Jun 2026 13:23 Post subject: |
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There are always tons of reasons to sell and the market will tank eventually. But you will never know when. Earnings are realy strong in the US though, it’s not all that bad. Best to not give a fuck about it all, stocks will be fine in the long run. 20%+ losses are part of the game.
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Il_Padrino
Posts: 7984
Location: Greece by the North Sea
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| Posted: Mon, 1st Jun 2026 17:12 Post subject: |
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But the earnings are not good. If you exclude Silicon Valley/AI companies from the equation, what's left is a stagnated economy.
Consumer sentiment and confidence hasn't been this low for years.
And then the AI related lay-offs still need to come .. who is going to buy all the crap when no one can afford it?
The numbers don't decide, the system is a lie. The river running dry, the wings of butterflies.
And you may pour us away like soup. Like we're pretty broken flowers.
We'll take back what is ours. One day at a time.
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| Posted: Mon, 1st Jun 2026 18:08 Post subject: |
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The stock market is not the economy.
Earnings are good, tech/semi are pushing the market, the rest is lagging behind indeed.
It's not a bubble (yet). But bad things can happen for sure. But this is always the case. If you read all the bad news you're never gonna invest and miss the 9-10% return on avarage.
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HubU
VIP Member
Posts: 11576
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HubU
VIP Member
Posts: 11576
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| Posted: Mon, 1st Jun 2026 18:43 Post subject: |
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And regarding AI, I'm no Luddite, it's just that this shit is not only half-baked, but people that use it extensively seem to use it to cover how inefficient they are at their job.
Just today, for example, received this well-crafted email that reeked of piss and AI from a partner.
Called the guy. He couldn't regurgitate the LLM vomit he spew for the life of him.
Internally made sure he was seen for the hack he is, and that was that.
So I'm not concerned about it succeeding in taking jobs. Companies that should have clearly benefited from it now (ie: call centers), did hire back all the crew they laid off.
Maybe it's because I have a quite specific job, but I found AI to more of a hindrance than anything else. You can't outsource decision-making.
On ne peut rien gagner sans perdre; même le paradis exige la mort.
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| Posted: Mon, 1st Jun 2026 19:29 Post subject: |
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Timing the market doesn't make any sense cause you never gonna sell at the top and buy at the bottom. It will always cost you money. The Iran war is such a minor thing (but the inflation it causes is a bummer), it will not crash the market. The western national debts crisis or China invading Taiwan, that's big. But when it happens, your to late selling anyway. AI isn't a threat for stocks, it's good for capital. And considering national debts for instance: this will become a problem 100%. But we don't know when so you probably lose a lot of money waiting for it. Also unsustainable debts will go hand in hand with ramping inflation. Stocks are the best place to hide with gold. So don't bother.
Considering doom scenario's like people don't have jobs anymore cause of AI, ww3 or whatever end of times scenario: then all is lost anyway and your cash is worthless also.
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