Right now Nvidia has the lead in technology and in your price range you can buy pretty much one step below the best either Nvidia or ATI make with an AGP port. This would include cards such as ATI's X850 Pro and Nvidia's 6800 GT with the 6800 GT averaging a tad cheaper then the ATI card.
Either card will offer you strong performance for your dollar so either is probably a good choice. I am more inclined towards Nvidia as the games I play always seem to play better on an Nvidia card. But you can hit any tech page which will have fps number for various cards listed by games that they test on. For example they always seem to use Far Cry, Unreal Tournament 2004 and Doom 3 but there are usually a good number of games listed covering different genres.
Here is a link to Toms Hardware where they review the current models of available AGP video cards.
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