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Ronhrin
Banned
Posts: 6428
Location: Paradigms are changeable, reality is absolute.
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 Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 13:56 Post subject: European Roullete |
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A friend of mine just made €9300 in 20 bets on an online casino using gambling technics and a roullete probability calculator.
he started with €110 and went all the way up to €9300,
today I went to his house and he showed me how he makes everyday €80 to €100 in some 4 or 5 bets, he exemplified me this 4 times in a row, he started with €40, in some 4 bets he reached €80, then he withdraw the extra €40 he made, and again with the original €40 he went all the way up to €95, withdraw the extra €55, start with €40 again, went to €87, withdraw. and done it one more time, reaching €89. All this without never losing the original €40, I was stunned watching him making that money in a matter of minutes. Even if he loses the original €40 at the fifth atempt, he has already won 40+55+47+49=191.
for what I could perceive, the roullete probability calculator never gives a wrong answer (probably because it is programmed the same way as real online casinos are), the secret is, a little perspective on the current game.
for instance, if the previous result was 25 wich is a number with the following attributes (Red, Odd, "3rd 12", "first 2to1" and "19-36")
the following number will have to be EITHER a Black or a Even or a "third 2to1" or a "2nd 12" or a "1-18" one of those results the roullete will have to give you, the secret is betting in one that "so far" has been given the minimal amount of times,
let's imagine, so far we had 31, 17, 12, 20,36 and 25,
31, 36 and 25 are both "third 12"
17 and 20 are both "second 12"
12 is "first 12"
the most probable chance to come out is a number in "first 12", only one so far, and the last one was 4 bets ago.
if you eventually lose the bet, you double the same bet, if eventually you lose again, you double it again, the "first 12" will eventually have to come out in 2 or 3 future bets because the last one was 4 bets ago and it's very unlikely that it doens't come out in more than 6 bets. Given that betting in the 1st 12 /2nd 12 or 3rd 12 always multiplies your bet value by 3 we get a pretty clear picture of how much he wins when his bet comes out right.
start with 40
bet 1 on 1st 12 (lost)
bet 2 on 1st 12 (lost)
bet 4 on 1st 12 (lost)
bet 8 on 1st 12 (won)
40-1-2-4-8=25
8*3=24
25+24=49
(note that you you don't really need to double 2 bet in x3 odds, you can play it safer but slower), (you need only do double it on x2 odds, but when betting in x2 odds the table can't delay your result far to long because the chances are 47.8%/47.8% on single zero roulettes which are the best for gambling)
start with 40
bet 1 on 1st 12 (lost)
bet 1 on 1st 12 (lost)
bet 2 on 1st 12 (lost)
bet 3 on 1st 12 (lost)
bet 4 on 1st 12 (lost)
bet 6 on 1st 12 (won)
40-1-1-2-3-4-6=23
6*3=18
23+18=41
you always won some amount, the key is the perspective of what bet the table can delay more, and what bet the table can delay less, if the bet is placed always in the result that the table can't delay more than 4 or 5 plays in a row, the player will always win.
this is what my friend calls kids gambling, he often uses this system but always with 2, 3 or even 4 different types of bet for any given number, he was showing me the mathematical probabillity of his loses and it was less than 22%.
what he says is this, "using this systems the player becomes the house, and the house becomes the player"
of course you can always lose, and you can even lose it big, but from what I've seen, you will win always more than what you lose, which means that he's always making money.
Last edited by Ronhrin on Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 14:29; edited 2 times in total
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deelix
PDIP Member
Posts: 32062
Location: Norway
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 14:21 Post subject: |
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isn't this against portugese law?
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Ronhrin
Banned
Posts: 6428
Location: Paradigms are changeable, reality is absolute.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 14:25 Post subject: |
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| deelix wrote: | | isn't this against portugese law? |
guess not, on real casinos maybe, but not on online casinos, as far as I know, only the U.S. have laws against gambling in online casinos, he plays only in European Casinos where gambling laws don't exist or are inconclusive. so he faces no legal charges, and given that he always changes the bets, even in the U.S. I doubt he could face any kind of legal problem.
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_SiN_
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Posts: 12108
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 14:27 Post subject: |
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Hate to break it to ya, but that theory is a false/fake.
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Ronhrin
Banned
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Location: Paradigms are changeable, reality is absolute.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 14:29 Post subject: |
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| _SiN_ wrote: | | Hate to break it to ya, but that theory is a false/fake. |
well I've seen it work, iI'd probably doubt it if I haven't seen it working, but it works fairly well.
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_SiN_
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Posts: 12108
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 14:32 Post subject: |
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Okay, in what online casino? Cause the theory relies on the fact that the roulette generator is programed to make the ball land within the 1st, 2nd and 3rd in a predetermined way.
How about inside and outside bets?
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Ronhrin
Banned
Posts: 6428
Location: Paradigms are changeable, reality is absolute.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 14:34 Post subject: |
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| _SiN_ wrote: | Okay, in what online casino? Cause the theory relies on the fact that the roulette generator is programed to make the ball land within the 1st, 2nd and 3rd in a predetermined way.
How about inside and outside bets? |
he showed me in bwin.com
there are bets that he places by first betting in the most probable 12, for instance the 1st, and at the same time, placing inside bets on all the inside numbers, including 0, expect the last 3 or 4 numbers, or else, the most frequent 2 or 3 numbers, he says that regarding the inside bets, there is a very reduced probability of losing, if he loses the outside bet, he will always win more with that type of inside bet, if he wins both inside and outside, perfect, but if he loses the inside and win the outside (which he claims that with that betting system happens once every 30 bets), he will know how to play more safely during the next 20 plays.
the systems that he uses seemed to me a little complex, but the bottom line is, I didn't saw him losing.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 14:49 Post subject: |
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You are obviously trolling for attention.
>>Here is a proof: Roulette is a stochastic random function, the successive outcomes are uncorrelated, therefore saying that something is more probable based on previous outcomes makes no sense.
>>Here's another proof: If there was such a way to make money, why would you tell anyone?
On the other hand the idea that you an bet black/white and just double your bet actually makes very little sense if you consider the actual odds. Now let's say we bet 1 dollar, and have 1/2 chance to double up. If we win, ok, great. If we lose we bet 2 dollars, which doubling up become four, but we've bet 3 already. Considering this line of thought we'll always end up winning just 1 dollar by betting double, but how long can we bet double?
The amount of dollars to bet (starting with a bet of one dollar) is the reciprocal probability of chance that successive (uncorrelated) outcomes are unfavourable.
Here's some python code I just wronte to demo the above:
| Code: |
class Roulette(object):
import random
def roll(self):
return self.random.randrange(2)
def play_roulette(bank, bet):
roulette = Roulette()
bust = False
while not bust:
last_bank = bank
bank -= bet
new_bet = bet
while not roulette.roll(): #while we lose, but still can bet
if bank > 2*new_bet:
new_bet *= 2
bank -= new_bet
else : bust = True
if not bust:
bank += 2*new_bet
#print "Total money:", bank
else : #print "Game over"
return last_bank
results = list()
for _ in range(10000):
results.append ( play_roulette(1000,1) )
mean = float(reduce(lambda x,y : x+y, results))/len(results)
variance = float(reduce(lambda x,y : x+y, [(a - mean)**2 for a in results]))/(len(results)-1)
from math import sqrt
standard_deviation = sqrt(variance)
print mean, variance, standard_deviation
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The result of that operation is
Mean : 3644.6846
Var: 1348416550.58
STD: 36720.7918021
Which means that you would on average win 3644 on initial bet of 1000, but you never know when to stop, so you would lose your money on the next bet. Oh, and it takes AGES to get 3644, seeing as how you bet 1 dollar at the time, and have to play at least several thousand games if your luck is devils own.
Seeing how you presented everything, I'm going to call you a liar, since no way in hell your friend can do that; and your entire theory seems to hindge on the idea that previous outcomes of a stochastic variable matter. They don't. 
[I'm a mathematician, before you ask]
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_SiN_
Megatron
Posts: 12108
Location: Cybertron
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 14:57 Post subject: |
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Actually, if he knows the seed and the random function of the casio's roulette, he could break the system with ease. You'd just bet on whatever number that would fall out next. Also, I guess a broken random generator could leak information somehow, since the successive values ARE correlated. You can bet your ass that there's more advanced security in a casino, than there is in any standard (pseudo) random generator, which generally don't have these weaknesses.
Also, putting money aside (win 100 bux, store 50 bux in "DO NOT LOOT, WINNINGS" box) doesn't help you, in fact it makes you lose more, since now you can't bail yourself out of an unlucky streak. There's also a human factor here, you can't bet, say 50 000 dollars to make sure you don't lose 1, and this is what you have to do, in some sense, in order to use this method.
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Ronhrin
Banned
Posts: 6428
Location: Paradigms are changeable, reality is absolute.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 15:00 Post subject: |
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| PoorLeno wrote: | You are obviously trolling for attention.
>>Here is a proof: Roulette is a stochastic random function, the successive outcomes are uncorrelated, therefore saying that something is more probable based on previous outcomes makes no sense.
>>Here's another proof: If there was such a way to make money, why would you tell anyone?
On the other hand the idea that you an bet black/white and just double your bet actually makes very little sense if you consider the actual odds. Now let's say we bet 1 dollar, and have 1/2 chance to double up. If we win, ok, great. If we lose we bet 2 dollars, which doubling up become four, but we've bet 3 already. Considering this line of thought we'll always end up winning just 1 dollar by betting double, but how long can we bet double?
The amount of dollars to bet (starting with a bet of one dollar) is the reciprocal probability of chance that successive (uncorrelated) outcomes are unfavourable.
Here's some python code I just wronte to demo the above:
| Code: |
class Roulette(object):
import random
def roll(self):
return self.random.randrange(2)
def play_roulette(bank, bet):
roulette = Roulette()
bust = False
while not bust:
last_bank = bank
bank -= bet
new_bet = bet
while not roulette.roll(): #while we lose, but still can bet
if bank > 2*new_bet:
new_bet *= 2
bank -= new_bet
else : bust = True
if not bust:
bank += 2*new_bet
#print "Total money:", bank
else : #print "Game over"
return last_bank
results = list()
for _ in range(10000):
results.append ( play_roulette(1000,1) )
mean = float(reduce(lambda x,y : x+y, results))/len(results)
variance = float(reduce(lambda x,y : x+y, [(a - mean)**2 for a in results]))/(len(results)-1)
from math import sqrt
standard_deviation = sqrt(variance)
print mean, variance, standard_deviation
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The result of that operation is
Mean : 3644.6846
Var: 1348416550.58
STD: 36720.7918021
Which means that you would on average win 3644 on initial bet of 1000, but you never know when to stop, so you would lose your money on the next bet. Oh, and it takes AGES to get 3644, seeing as how you bet 1 dollar at the time, and have to play at least several thousand games if your luck is devils own.
Seeing how you presented everything, I'm going to call you a liar, since no way in hell your friend can do that; and your entire theory seems to hindge on the idea that previous outcomes of a stochastic variable matter. They don't.
[I'm a mathematician, before you ask] |
the question is changing the bet style, if he wins by betting in the 12's, he then starts betting on the "odds/evens" for instance. when he wins some 1 or 2 times in the "odds/evens" he goes back to the 12's, or then goes into the 2to1's. for every time he chances the bet he goes always to the value that doesn't come out in the longest time.
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Ronhrin
Banned
Posts: 6428
Location: Paradigms are changeable, reality is absolute.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 15:06 Post subject: |
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| PoorLeno wrote: | Actually, if he knows the seed and the random function of the casio's roulette, he could break the system with ease. You'd just bet on whatever number that would fall out next. Also, I guess a broken random generator could leak information somehow, since the successive values ARE correlated. You can bet your ass that there's more advanced security in a casino, than there is in any standard (pseudo) random generator, which generally don't have these weaknesses.
Also, putting money aside (win 100 bux, store 50 bux in "DO NOT LOOT, WINNINGS" box) doesn't help you, in fact it makes you lose more, since now you can't bail yourself out of an unlucky streak. There's also a human factor here, you can't bet, say 50 000 dollars to make sure you don't lose 1, and this is what you have to do, in some sense, in order to use this method. |
the losing streaks often start only after the 7 - 8 bet, by that time you should always cash out after the 5th play.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 15:11 Post subject: |
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You are being really silly now. I've explained the mathematics behind it, but you persist to "prove a point", which is clearly... ehem
CLEARLY
wrong. If it wasn't wrong the game of roulette wouldn't exist, and every statistician I know would be out of a job.
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Ronhrin
Banned
Posts: 6428
Location: Paradigms are changeable, reality is absolute.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 15:19 Post subject: |
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I didn't say I understood the system behind the roullete, I was presenting what was presented to me, and I seen working, If you are telling me it was just luck, I can take it, I was sharing what was presented to me and seemed like a working system.
He who sacrifices freedom for security deserves neither
- Benjamin Franklin - 1759
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 15:27 Post subject: |
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Ronhrin, nonono, you totally didn't understand what I was saying. I'm not saying it was luck, i'm calling you a liar. A dirty rotten liar!
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Ronhrin
Banned
Posts: 6428
Location: Paradigms are changeable, reality is absolute.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 15:45 Post subject: |
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| PoorLeno wrote: | | Ronhrin, nonono, you totally didn't understand what I was saying. I'm not saying it was luck, i'm calling you a liar. A dirty rotten liar! |
no, actually you are not calling me a liar, you are calling me insane really, because as I know what I saw, what's left is to question my sanity. What you tried to argue in the previous posts was that you cannot predict the randomness of the system, but, you can calculate the probability (you do know what that is, don't you?), the bottom line, is that in the x2 roulette odds, during a losing streak, a given result never fails on you for more than 12-13 times maximum, there are laws the prohibit the online casinos of keeping a x2 odd event from not comming out in more than 13 sequential times in a row, (13 for single zero roulettes, if it were for double zero roulettes, it would be 14 times). you can try this before your next post keep on mentioning my integrity or mental sanity.
of course, as a mathematician that you are, you know that 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512-1024-2048-4096=8191, which means that during a losing streak you would need to have more than €8200 in order for you to gain €1, but as you know the losing streaks can only be applied to 1 or 2 variable at a time during a streak, that's why when you perceive you are in a losing streak you change your bet style or cash out and try later. with 10.000 it's virtually impossible to lose in a online roulette, even if it means winning €1 at a time, you would virtually never lose.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 15:54 Post subject: |
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There's no such thing a perceeved loosing streak. Every subsequent roll is RANDOM. Which means that it can be favorable or unfavorable. There's nothing to suggest that changing play style will benefit you. There's a famous game show host and three boxes thought experiment that seems to contradict this, but it actually doesn't. Google it if you like, it's actually a little entertaining.
I'm not calling you insane. I'm calling you a liar, because you claim to have seen something, which is a statistical impossiblity. It's not impossible for your friend to win, but it is impossible for him to sustain and to bet as much as you've seemed to suggest he did.
Of course, there's a fine line between what can be assertained as mental instability and denial of solid facts. Where's the 12-13 times maximum is coming from? You keep pulling numbers out of your ass, and I will assume that you are mentally unstable.
Then again, you might just be a little silly, and your friend april-first-fooled-ya.
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Posts: 3074
Location: San Diego, CA
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 17:11 Post subject: |
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| PoorLeno wrote: | | Roulette is a stochastic random function, the successive outcomes are uncorrelated, therefore saying that something is more probable based on previous outcomes makes no sense. |
This might be off-topic but there is no such thing as random. Even a real roulette table is just a function of physical variables and the only difficulty is calculating those variable fast enough in real time (by humans that is) to be able to predict where the ball is going to land.
As for online roulette, that's just a pseudo-random number generator based on some pre-determined mathematical formula. The very fact that it's based on a formula (no matter how complex) means that it's not random.
Unless the generator is using some natural phenomenon it's not random. Even in the case of a natural phenomenon, it might just appear to be random to us who do not/cannot see the pattern in its randomness. Just because we cannot see it does not mean that it's not following a pattern.
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Ronhrin
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Ronhrin
Banned
Posts: 6428
Location: Paradigms are changeable, reality is absolute.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 17:41 Post subject: |
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what I wanted to say above is the following, the online roulettes always try to go against your system, what I mean is this, if your gambling system is betting on reds only, after a few wins you'll hit a losing streak in which from 7 to 10 or even 13 sequential plays a red number won't come out, if you lose some time playing with fun money or go into multiplayer rooms watching other analysing other players, you'll see that those losing streaks almost only happen when a respective player makes sequential wins using 1 or 2 basic systems.
so it is obvious that there is no randomness in online casinos, there is a predetermined program trying to prevent people of using gambling systems, now, if the generation of numbers is a system that tries to prevent previous winning systems, one can see that there is not much of a random process, it's more like of a protection system that prevents well known gambling technics of being profitable, knowing this, it is possible to take this system into the players advantage by perceiving what type of protection is currently in place.
I've seen players doing inside bets only by betting in all the numbers expect for instance 23 and 35, the player wins 4 or 5 games in a row, but then curiosuly the table gives 2 sequential plays the number 35, if you change the number, if your next play would be betting on all the numbers except 30 and 12, curiously, the table would pop out the number 12, making sure you'd lose a considerable amount of money, and this happens very often in online table.
so, randomness is replaced by a form of anti winning game after a few plays.
after perceived the fact that the game is predetermined by a number or default plays and anti winning strategies, and putting aside the human factor of greed, the game can be predicted with a fair amount of wins over losses.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 20:49 Post subject: |
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| swingman wrote: | | PoorLeno wrote: | | Roulette is a stochastic random function, the successive outcomes are uncorrelated, therefore saying that something is more probable based on previous outcomes makes no sense. |
This might be off-topic but there is no such thing as random. Even a real roulette table is just a function of physical variables and the only difficulty is calculating those variable fast enough in real time (by humans that is) to be able to predict where the ball is going to land.
As for online roulette, that's just a pseudo-random number generator based on some pre-determined mathematical formula. The very fact that it's based on a formula (no matter how complex) means that it's not random.
Unless the generator is using some natural phenomenon it's not random. Even in the case of a natural phenomenon, it might just appear to be random to us who do not/cannot see the pattern in its randomness. Just because we cannot see it does not mean that it's not following a pattern. |
A sufficiently well seeded pseudorandom function is more than unbreakable by means the player has. I've already mentioned that casinos might have some extra trics up their sleeves, one of these might (and I'm sure more serious establishments do) use a Geiger-Muller device that measures the time deltas between radioactive decay, and arrive at seeds or values through by laws of physics provable random phenomena.
By the way the real roulette table isn't a deterministic function of physical data, since the laws of chaos and turbulence dominate the end result in a manner where the precision requirment is above the percision measurable with any concievable device.
I've already covered predicting the values in this manner, and if you could do that; then there is no need for any guesswork. Bet all your money on what you know is the next outcome.
Then mr liarpants goes:
"what I wanted to say above is the following, the online roulettes always try to go against your system". That's silly. Why build a system succeptable to manipulation, when the system based on random chance will generate money just fine? Nobody would do this, it's just supersilly. There are no systems, except the perfet play I've outlined below and it's flawed, because you will ALWAYS LOSE in the end.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 20:57 Post subject: |
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I think what swingman tried to tell you is, that you indeed can calculate where the ball is going (at least almost), IF you`re playing real roulette on a real table, and you know where the ball started and how fast it`s moving.
There have already been frauds in the past, that used computers and programms, that could do exactly that.
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 21:15 Post subject: |
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| AwE wrote: | I think what swingman tried to tell you is, that you indeed can calculate where the ball is going (at least almost), IF you`re playing real roulette on a real table, and you know where the ball started and how fast it`s moving.
There have already been frauds in the past, that used computers and programms, that could do exactly that. |
And I tell you that you can't, because of laws of physics. Classic example of this is the double pendulum experiment, where the chaotic and turbulent forces effect the total outcome.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_pendulum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaotic_motion |
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nouseforaname
Über-VIP Member
Posts: 21306
Location: Toronto, Canada
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| Posted: Thu, 3rd Apr 2008 22:43 Post subject: |
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I don't know why people feel the need to argue the absolute truth of a statement when it is effectively true regardless.
With reference to classical physics 'random' has always been a relative term dependent on the current capacity for measurement and prediction.
"Techniclly speaking, Beta-Manboi didnt inject Burberry_Massi with Benz, he injected him with liquid that had air bubbles in it, which caused benz." - House M.D
"Faith without logic is the same as knowledge without understanding; meaningless"
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| Posted: Fri, 4th Apr 2008 03:15 Post subject: |
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I employ the same strategy but generally online you'll be hard pushed to find one that's 100% fair.
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Cohen
Posts: 7155
Location: Rapture
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| Posted: Fri, 4th Apr 2008 03:28 Post subject: |
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I remember some forum where a guy posted a loophole bug with one of the major online casino's and made everyone who read/posted on the thread before it was removed a few hundred bucks. These technical faults/loopholes are the only way you can swindle the online casinos.. these 'thought out' methods are rarely worthy of anything.
It sounds like a nice idea, but as many have pointed out its flawed.
troll detected by SiN
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