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 Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 04:00 Post subject: |
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| farne wrote: | | Any thoughts on UWTI/DWTI? |
Only for day trading due to decay. I've made a shitload off of both, but also lost a bit. If you daytrade and want to make a lot of money really fast they are 100% worth it though although I stick with EXXI for when crude is rising as it will more often then not make larger gains during a trading day.
And yes, shorting anything oil right now is idiotic unless daytrading due to the volatility and the fact that we are at nearly record short positions anyways.
EXXI is a speculative value investment, and/or for daytrading.
If you believe oil will go up by the end of the year you are betting off putting money into such companies as EXXI, DNR, CRK, BXE, etc as a long term value investment. You do not want to put money into a 3x ETN like UWTI long term due to decay as even if oil recovers to $120 in a year you'll have lost value along the way anyways. If you are comfortable day trading it's worth it though.
Also, for those interested in EXXI you are better off buying bonds and/or going long options rather then straight shares long term.
Anyways, made some good money off last weeks run. Made a solid 60%. My stop loss kicked off today but i'm fine with that. Still holding a core long position, but I take every opportunity I can with a different set of funds.
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 08:07 Post subject: |
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How much do you guys use for buying? Or recommend? I know there's a certain minimum here due to taxes etc that should be used but I'm thinking about a longer run.
I mean, I've got a few things going on with crowdfunded loans (rather high risks) but I'm thinking about using some € for bonds/stocks etc.
Daytrading is not for me as it requires time and certain timeperiods I can't comply with.
i5 6600k @ 4.3 GHz | MSI z170 Gaming M7 | 32GB Kingston HyperX Fury | 850 Evo 500GB | EVGA 1070 SC | Seasonic X-660 | CM Storm Stryker
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 16:01 Post subject: |
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OPEC Output Rose to 32.42m in January versus 32.38m in December
Russian Output Rose to 10.88m in January
WTI crashing below 30 dollars on those devastating news
EXXI will trade in 0.30-0.50 range after 8th of February
Prepare your bank accounts
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Il_Padrino
Posts: 7573
Location: Greece by the North Sea
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 18:41 Post subject: |
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| difm wrote: | How much do you guys use for buying? Or recommend? I know there's a certain minimum here due to taxes etc that should be used but I'm thinking about a longer run.
I mean, I've got a few things going on with crowdfunded loans (rather high risks) but I'm thinking about using some € for bonds/stocks etc.
Daytrading is not for me as it requires time and certain timeperiods I can't comply with. |
Be prepared to lose it all, so only use money you don't need.
There must have been a door there in the wall, when I came in.
Truly gone fishing.
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HubU
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Posts: 11364
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 20:59 Post subject: |
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| vitupuuks wrote: | OPEC Output Rose to 32.42m in January versus 32.38m in December
Russian Output Rose to 10.88m in January
WTI crashing below 30 dollars on those devastating news
EXXI will trade in 0.30-0.50 range after 8th of February
Prepare your bank accounts |
I knew the "we reached the bottom now" news was ludicrous at best. Who trusts the whores of the WSJ, Bloomberg or S&P anymore? They sell you news to influence their (associated) profits.
Geopolitical news are real. And they are bad. The general word political climate is volatile. This cheap oil trend, for once, translated into reality the Reaganian trickle down system. Big oil's money is actually in the pockets of 'the people'. They pay less for the same, at grand scale, since a long time. CAPEX/OPEX really.
On EXXI/NFX/DNR: OPEC and others, they're telling people that they will hold a production cut meeting. Maybe. Panties get wet, " 'whoohoo', going up! ".
Yeah, but no. Not for a time (and I say 3 months, for stockpiling-purposed prices will fall, since 'enough is enough' right?). Then the reality of the rig counts, and actual forecasted demand that will outpace the actual output at actual prices.
This is a no-brainer.
This is not a price reduction campaign, it's an attrition war. A war that Saudi's are fighting in the field ATM too. You can't allow yourself to run a large deficit when at war, and certainly not when it's your major peace-time revenues as well.
It will go down. Quite a lot. But not for long, except if we go into global recession.
And even so, daytrade the sucker. So volatile that a .30> buy could turn into a .80< sell in a week's time.
"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 21:02 Post subject: |
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Its usually the weak chinned, small framed beta incels who love to spread their conspiracy theories. Take your cultural Marxism elsewhere skx7, we dont want to be enlightened.
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 21:40 Post subject: |
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| HubU wrote: |
I knew the "we reached the bottom now" news was ludicrous at best. Who trusts the whores of the WSJ, Bloomberg or S&P anymore? They sell you news to influence their (associated) profits.
Geopolitical news are real. And they are bad. The general word political climate is volatile. This cheap oil trend, for once, translated into reality the Reaganian trickle down system. Big oil's money is actually in the pockets of 'the people'. They pay less for the same, at grand scale, since a long time. CAPEX/OPEX really.
On EXXI/NFX/DNR: OPEC and others, they're telling people that they will hold a production cut meeting. Maybe. Panties get wet, " 'whoohoo', going up! ".
Yeah, but no. Not for a time (and I say 3 months, for stockpiling-purposed prices will fall, since 'enough is enough' right?). Then the reality of the rig counts, and actual forecasted demand that will outpace the actual output at actual prices.
This is a no-brainer.
This is not a price reduction campaign, it's an attrition war. A war that Saudi's are fighting in the field ATM too. You can't allow yourself to run a large deficit when at war, and certainly not when it's your major peace-time revenues as well.
It will go down. Quite a lot. But not for long, except if we go into global recession.
And even so, daytrade the sucker. So volatile that a .30> buy could turn into a .80< sell in a week's time. |
I agree. Saudis have been consistent with their production plan since November 2014.
However Russia has a big role to play in the game. Thats because they are the second largest exporters of oil and have a significant influence over Iran and also over some OPEC countries (Iraq, Venezuela, Algeria)
Right now they cannot cut down the production immediately, because it is winter in Siberia, but summer changes everything. Crude will go up 2H 2016
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 21:59 Post subject: |
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Hmm my depot is still blocked for the next 1.5 weeks. Where were EXXI's properties and drilling grounds located again?
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HubU
VIP Member
Posts: 11364
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 22:03 Post subject: |
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| vitupuuks wrote: |
I agree. Saudis have been consistent with their production plan since November 2014.
However Russia has a big role to play in the game. Thats because they are the second largest exporters of oil and have a significant influence over Iran and also over some OPEC countries (Iraq, Venezuela, Algeria)
Right now they cannot cut down the production immediately, because it is winter in Siberia, but summer changes everything. Crude will go up 2H 2016 |
All you ear is "Europe". It's kinda warm here, thank you very much. Sure, it will fluctuate, but how little? And for how long?
"Big drop in celsius, be sure to be prepared for a rough winter", could you read in the belgian papers two weeks ago. I spent my sunday walking around in a short pants. In "winter". This is an artefact, just some coincidence.
Or not, but even so, opportunities will arise. The cuts will provide lasting wounds.
If I make a few quick buck with EXXI, I'll think about Russia. Ruble gonna thumble, but M. Putin will whip that economy back in shape with the rise of oil. And then you'll have the % AND the rates going in your favour too. Looks like some kind of bonanza to me.
But then again, I might be wrong. What do you think people?
"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 22:10 Post subject: |
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Guys, keep this clear of political discussions and other horseshit.
Pump, I will get you the investor relations PDF showing EXXIs holdings in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico when I get home later. They own quite a bit and its cheap for them to operate as the drill sites are shallow water.
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HubU
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Posts: 11364
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 22:24 Post subject: |
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| Mchart wrote: | Guys, keep this clear of political discussions and other horseshit.
Pump, I will get you the investor relations PDF showing EXXIs holdings in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico when I get home later. They own quite a bit and its cheap for them to operate as the drill sites are shallow water. |
You called the pricing and the oil market nothing short of unrealistic if I remember. Don't you think geopol has anything to do with it?
It's an important factor, and it should be discussed too. PDF's and spreadsheets are essentials, but do not alone paint the whole picture.
I'm sure you're aware of that, I just don't see why it shouldn't be discussed here.
"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 22:30 Post subject: |
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| PumpAction wrote: | | Hmm my depot is still blocked for the next 1.5 weeks. Where were EXXI's properties and drilling grounds located again? |
| HubU wrote: |
All you ear is "Europe". It's kinda warm here, thank you very much. Sure, it will fluctuate, but how little? And for how long?
"Big drop in celsius, be sure to be prepared for a rough winter", could you read in the belgian papers two weeks ago. I spent my sunday walking around in a short pants. In "winter". This is an artefact, just some coincidence.
Or not, but even so, opportunities will arise. The cuts will provide lasting wounds.
If I make a few quick buck with EXXI, I'll think about Russia. Ruble gonna thumble, but M. Putin will whip that economy back in shape with the rise of oil. And then you'll have the % AND the rates going in your favour too. Looks like some kind of bonanza to me.
But then again, I might be wrong. What do you think people? |
Its very simple with Siberian oilwells. The pipes will freeze.
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 22:53 Post subject: |
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| vitupuuks wrote: | | PumpAction wrote: | | Hmm my depot is still blocked for the next 1.5 weeks. Where were EXXI's properties and drilling grounds located again? |
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Thanks!
| Mchart wrote: | Guys, keep this clear of political discussions and other horseshit.
Pump, I will get you the investor relations PDF showing EXXIs holdings in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico when I get home later. They own quite a bit and its cheap for them to operate as the drill sites are shallow water. |
Hmm but politics was actually why I was asking where their drilling grounds are. As unrealistic as it might be for some, Bernie Sanders has some serious plans to leave all american oil in the ground once he wins. Of course this won't happen the day he is elected, but it seems rather bad for american oil companies. So with every vote and poll where he raises in numbers, I suspect american oil companies to take a big hit and if elected, the oil prices will raise because the us oil companies drilling/fracking for oil on us ground will be dead. |
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HubU
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 22:56 Post subject: |
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| vitupuuks wrote: |
Its very simple with Siberian oilwells. The pipes will freeze. |
And do you trust the russians just to observe that and go "well, not enough piss to warm the sucker up, so fuck it." ? They can tackle that. And as far as gas is concerned, cold is good.
They will sell a lot of goods and arms to Iran, whose gonna pay up with nice, warm dollars.
They could have more exports toward Europe in this political spectrum shift, in this US hegemony power-vacuum. When you buckle up you tend to be peckish on deals, making them with yesterday's enemy. And polls show that people tend to vote, in Europe, for parties that, regardless of their political views, are more open toward Russia, sometimes correlated to an open and clear support of Putin (and Russia as a preferencial market in general).
"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
Last edited by HubU on Wed, 3rd Feb 2016 00:46; edited 1 time in total
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HubU
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| Posted: Tue, 2nd Feb 2016 22:59 Post subject: |
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| PumpAction wrote: |
Hmm but politics was actually why I was asking where their drilling grounds are. As unrealistic as it might be for some, Bernie Sanders has some serious plans to leave all american oil in the ground once he wins. Of course this won't happen the day he is elected, but it seems rather bad for american oil companies. So with every vote and poll where he raises in numbers, I suspect american oil companies to take a big hit and if elected, the oil prices will raise because the us oil companies drilling/fracking for oil on us ground will be dead. |
Oil isn't just fuel. It's also plastics, industry-grade lubricants , chemistry, etc... A shitload of sectors depend on oil, you can't just "switch off" by having, let's say, tidal-wave powered electric car. What of the tar the road is made of?
As much as I want Sanders to win, this is a promise he just can't allow himself to keep.
It might contribute to lower oil market prices, but it won't stay there. Certainly not for the next two years.
"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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| Posted: Wed, 3rd Feb 2016 03:29 Post subject: |
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When I meant politics I meant some of the other non-sense in this thread.
Lower oil prices = more demand. The longer the prices are lower the more demand will go up. No reason to switch to solar panels when oil is $20 a barrel.
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| Posted: Wed, 3rd Feb 2016 17:28 Post subject: |
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Solid build today, even with bearish news.
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| Posted: Wed, 3rd Feb 2016 22:52 Post subject: |
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HubU
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| Posted: Thu, 4th Feb 2016 02:05 Post subject: |
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| farne wrote: | | http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-03/six-oil-producers-agree-on-emergency-meeting-iran-s-shana-says |
| Quote: | | Iraq, Algeria, Nigeria and Ecuador would join OPEC members Iran and Venezuela and non-OPEC producers Russia and Oman if talks are scheduled |
It would just be a miracle in itself if all those guys don't kill each other in that room; yet alone reach an agreement.
You expect Venezuela to negociate a meaningful deal when it's government can't even provide TP for it's people? Russia's gonna make huge compromises with NATO members?
Short term? Naaah.
"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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| Posted: Thu, 4th Feb 2016 16:55 Post subject: |
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Thanks for all the input and data. I'm going to wait until EXXI goes below 50 cents and buy 500 euros worth of stock. With my luck they'll declare BK the week after I go in, but I'm hoping for the best. A man gotta take some risks.
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HubU
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HubU
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| Posted: Fri, 5th Feb 2016 06:03 Post subject: |
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| Mchart wrote: | | Mister_s wrote: | There are also sites mentioning EXXI is preparing for a chapter 11 since bonds are being dumped for cents and they hired "restructuring advisers". I don't exactly know what all this means though  |
No, Franklin is dumping their position / or swap is taking place. It is likely that EXXI is buying said bonds. Either way this is a positive effect for EXXI as they are wiping out their 2018 debt for practically nothing which means this is putting them farther away from BK. It makes zero sense for whomever is buying these bonds to buy them if BK was in the works as these are unsecured notes. EXXI has basically had $2 billion in debt wiped out in the past couple days for only $30 million. |
From what I read, BK for EXXI is far from happening. They're buying, as you said, their own debt on the cheap, and their reserves are still solid. Sure, debt is mounting, and those bonds are virtually worthless, but EXXI will endure for at least a solid year at current oil prices, so no sweat.
Only bad thing would be a hurricane or some spill, but those are "acts of God", so keep faith 
"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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| Posted: Fri, 5th Feb 2016 06:43 Post subject: |
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Debt isn't mounting if EXXI is the one that bought those bonds as they've just cut their debt almost in half.
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HubU
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| Posted: Fri, 5th Feb 2016 15:58 Post subject: |
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| Mchart wrote: | | Debt isn't mounting if EXXI is the one that bought those bonds as they've just cut their debt almost in half. |
They still operate at a loss, aren't they? So even if they buy back cheap debt, they create some more everyday by not generating a profit, or am I completely wrong?
"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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| Posted: Fri, 5th Feb 2016 17:58 Post subject: |
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| HubU wrote: | | Mchart wrote: | | Debt isn't mounting if EXXI is the one that bought those bonds as they've just cut their debt almost in half. |
They still operate at a loss, aren't they? So even if they buy back cheap debt, they create some more everyday by not generating a profit, or am I completely wrong? |
They aren't taking on new debt, they're burning through cash. Buying the bonds clears out some debt which means less cash that need be burned as less interest.
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HubU
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| Posted: Fri, 5th Feb 2016 19:10 Post subject: |
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| Mchart wrote: | | HubU wrote: | | Mchart wrote: | | Debt isn't mounting if EXXI is the one that bought those bonds as they've just cut their debt almost in half. |
They still operate at a loss, aren't they? So even if they buy back cheap debt, they create some more everyday by not generating a profit, or am I completely wrong? |
They aren't taking on new debt, they're burning through cash. Buying the bonds clears out some debt which means less cash that need be burned as less interest. |
Yeah, so they're just burning money more efficiently.
"Music washes away from the soul the dust of everyday life." ~Berthold Auerbach
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when shit hit the fan, inside traders offload their toxic shares before the mass even can foresee the stockmarket suspending trade 
